Ten years ago, the idea of cheap, mass-market electric vehicles (EVs) becoming the principal form of general transportation seemed like a distant dream. Now the EV revolution is at our doorstep! What forces are driving this revolution? How fast will the revolutionary changes occur? How can Boulder prepare for this revolution?
According to Stanford futurist Toni Seba, we are now entering the exponential, disruptive phase in the transformation of vehicles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs) to EVs. This transformation is driven by the convergence of new technologies, resulting in a precipitous drop in EV prices. Most notably, battery prices are falling faster than anticipated, about 14 percent a year for 15 years. This has moved up the date of price parity of unsubsidized EVs with ICE vehicles close to 2024, opening the floodgate of mass market adoption. Indeed, developing EVs has become a matter of survival for all car manufacturers. Mary Barro, the CEO of GM stated in November 2017: “GM believes the future is all electric…” Underlining this prediction, VW has announced the release of 50 new, battery-driven vehicles by 2025.
EVs are roughly three times more efficient than ICE-powered vehicles and they have about 100 times fewer moving engine and transmission parts. Together with the lower cost of electricity compared to fossil fuels, these features yield EVs that have a longer lifespan and are 10 times cheaper to operate compared to ICE vehicles.
An average EV uses about 3,000 kWh per year of electric power. The connection of millions of EVs to the electric grid over a short time span will place an enormous strain on the electricity generating and distribution systems and, in turn, will require major infrastructure investments. Where will this electricity come from? Fortunately, the cost of both solar panels and battery storage systems has dropped to the point where solar energy will be the most economical way to produce the increased electricity needed to fuel EVs. The modular design of solar systems makes the construction of such facilities close to the end-users a relatively fast and easy process.
What are the implications of these developments for Boulder? In a recent Daily Camera commentary (Jan. 7) Jane Brautigam, city manager, and Heather Bailey, executive director of electricity development, state that they are actively thinking beyond municipalization as the city’s singular approach to climate change. However, their commentary devotes a total of three out of 750 words to EVs despite the fact that transportation uses 25 percent of our energy. This discrepancy suggests that they do not fully comprehend how the coming EV revolution will affect our city.
At present, nobody can accurately predict how the coming revolutions in electricity generation, storage, distribution, use, and regulation will change Boulder in the next 10 years. It is also unclear how these revolutions will affect local sale tax income. In this uncertain environment, does it make sense for the city to spend more than $200 million to acquire an outdated electrical distribution system? Would it not make more sense to invest the same amount of money to develop, together with Xcel, the novel electrical infrastructure systems that we will need 10 years from now?
Currently, the 40 percent of Boulderites who live in apartment buildings do not have the ability to charge an EV at their home with a slow but cheap charging station. Fast charging stations cost $50,000-$100,000 per installation, which constitutes a big financial hurdle and limits their numbers. Furthermore, such stations require an electrical system capable of delivering large amounts of electricity over a short time period. Can our current transmission system handle such loads?
In Colorado, Boulder has the largest number of EVs and hybrid cars per capita. We are also the home of several institutions interested in defining how to best tackle the many questions related to future modes of transportation. The adoption rate of EVs in Boulder is expected to be at the cutting edge of the coming revolution. For these reasons, Boulder is an attractive partner for aiding Xcel in navigating the transition to EVs and integrating the EVs with distributed solar energy systems and grid-supplied electricity. These goals should be a central topic in our negotiations with Xcel.
L. Andrew Staehelin is a professor emeritus at the University of Colorado, Boulder.
