Motor Mouth: It’s election season and we’re being promised even more EVs
If only solving the automotive climate crisis was so easy
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Lord have mercy, we’re heading to the polls — and what a beggar’s banquet we have to choose from. Justin Trudeau’s failings hardly need more amplification, those waiting for Andrew Scheer to “get comfortable in his role” would appear to have a good deal longer to wait, and just how did Jagmeet Singh get outflanked by both the Liberals and the Greens? Then there’s Elizabeth May’s phantasms and Maxime Bernier, the only man seemingly less suited to politics than Yours Truly. A seemingly rag-tag bunch, to say the least.
Mine, however, is not to comment on larger political discourse. Instead, I’ll stick with the subjects — actually, subject — to which I am at least slightly versed; automobiles. Or, more precisely, the policy promises that might affect the cars we drive. In other words, that portion of the parties’ election platforms that will affect Driving readers.
Liberals
First out of the gate is the Liberal Party. Not only is it the government in power, but Trudeau’s team already enacted its auto-related programs during its first time at bat. To wit, we now have an up-to-$5,000 rebate for various forms of plug-in electrified vehicles that now extends coast to coast. In place for just five months, the trend is nonetheless apparent: In regions with a hefty local provincial incentive tacked on to the federal stipend — notably Quebec and British Columbia — electric vehicle sales are strong. In other provinces — notably Ontario, where the Ford government slashed EV subsidization — sales are in a malaise. The only thing that can be said for sure is, despite the prognostication of EV’s staunchest proponents, the sale of plug-in vehicles is still largely dependent on subsidization.
One thing that may be added to the Liberal’s 2019 portfolio is a 10 per cent rebate on used EVs (to a maximum of $2,000). That means the buyers of second-hand electric vehicles will doubly benefit from government largesse, used EV depreciation typically based on after rebate transactional costs. If, for instance, a Tesla qualified for a $14,000 giveaway during the Wynne regime, the total benefit to a used Model S owner could be as large as $16,000. All out of taxpayers’ pockets, of course.
As for the other policy affecting Driving, the Trudeau government’s carbon tax plan — at least the one it will talk about — is well known. Basically, we’ll see taxes on a litre of gas increase 2.2 cents per year, which despite the angst-ridden headlines in the mainstream media, is really just a sop to party loyalists. No one, as I have detailed previously, is going to jettison even the most gas-guzzling of F-150s because the price of gas goes up 2.2 cents a year, the average pickup owner probably looking at about 50 bucks more a year at the pumps. There’s virtually no chance the carbon tax will have any real effect on Canadian’s driving habits.
Conservatives
That makes Andrew Scheer’s promise to repeal the current carbon tax as shallow a promise to his faithful as Trudeau’s. Now if Trudeau fils, as Scheer has previously contended, has secret plans (if he wins the October 21 contest, of course) to dramatically increase the price of carbon emissions — to, say $300 per tonne, compared with the $50 currently projected — then Scheer’s alarm may have some validity. I will leave it to you to determine if that supposition is vote-worthy.
As for specific EV policy — i.e., rebates for electric vehicles — Scheer has not so far promised to retract Trudeau’s EV subsidization. As for conjecture as to what they might do if elected, the Conservatives might be well served by their loyalists by cancelling the program. However, if a recent Abacus Data poll is at all accurate — it says 89 per cent of Canadians are in favour of subventing EV purchases — the current subsidies are simply too popular among the broad Canadian electorate to completely abolish. Those pointing to Doug Ford successfully turning EV subsidies into an election platform would do well to remember that Ontario offered a seriously-affronting $14,000 per car rebate at the time. Magnitude — not intent — would seem to be the reason Kathleen Wynne got tossed out of office.
NDP
If there’s a reason the NDP seems in a deep malaise, it’s that Singh’s policies are just more of the same. For instance, the NDP has promised to up Trudeau’s ante to $15,000 per car, but only if said electric vehicle is built here in Canada (currently, the only vehicle qualifying would the Chrysler Pacifica). To further incentivize such local production, Singh has promised a further $300 million to resurrect the Automotive Innovation Fund with a focus on the development of zero-emissions vehicles.
Talk about buying votes. If we estimate — and this is definitely a wild guess — that Singh’s three-times larger incentives increase sales by 10,000 a year over the Liberal’s plans, that would work out to a subsidy of $21,000 for each and every additional EV sold over the next five years. Not only that, the total — a billion bucks and counting — would probably bolster the market share of EVs in Canada by less than half a per cent. And because EVs require less manpower to build, there would probably be precious few new jobs added as well.
Elizabeth May’s platform is big on grandiosity but sparing in reality
Green Party
Well, as you might expect from a party that holds but two seats in parliament and no real hope of power, Elizabeth May’s platform is big on grandiosity but sparing in reality. So, while cancelling the Trans Mountain pipeline is easily promised — duh, Elizabeth, Justin was never going to build it in the first place — and her claim she will upgrade Canada Post’s fleet to electric vehicles does make some sense, her commitment to reduce Canada’s greenhouse emissions by 60 per cent by 2030 and to “net-zero” by 2050 sounds a little Timothy Leary-like.
Ditto her promise to make EVs affordable; her plan to exempt EVs, new and used, from federal sales taxes, barely puts a dent in electrification’s affordability problem. Even more phantasmagorical is her plan to ban sales of gasoline-powered cars by 2030. Uh, note to Ms. May: Not even the most aggressive of traditional automakers — that would be the Volkswagen Group — has any plans to completely scrap ICEs by 2030. You do also know that plug-in hybrids, possibly the most sensible “green” vehicles for the next, say, 20 years, still have internal combustion engines, right?
People’s Party of Canada
Maxime Bernier says he will scrap the federal carbon tax, withdraw from the Paris Accord, and abolish all green incentives, including, but not specifically mentioning, those for electric vehicles. Dude, I am considered a diehard piston head and even I know that’s not getting you elected.
Bloc Quebecois
Well, by definition, the Bloc should be largely concerned with local politics or, more accurately, politics that affect its locals. But, with polls showing that Yves-Francois Blanchet may well serve as kingmaker in the next parliament, suddenly his policies take on national importance.
And in the automotive realm, the big question is if the the Bloc could force whoever its partner was — but most likely someone named Justin — to spread Quebec’s draconian EV program across the country. For those who don’t know, in La Belle Province, government decree requires that automakers increase their sales of ZEVs three percentage points per year until, in 2025, 22 per cent of all cars sold in Quebec are electric.
That sounds wonderful, except when you consider the success of governments past in forcing manufacturers to sell products consumers don’t want. It’s also, as almost all the industry contends, not effective in reducing greenhouse gasses — Ford, just as an example, could produce even larger pickup trucks as long as they sell enough EVs. Quebec will not reach its 2025 goals; extending the policy through Canada will just make the failure larger.
Much more effective ... are 'feebates' — which combine both a fee for fuel-inefficient vehicles and a rebate for fuel-efficient vehicles — that promote the retirement of gas guzzlers and subsidize the purchase of cheap, fuel-efficient cars.
A surprisingly unrealistic electorate
The reason why EV rebates are a no-brainer for the three left-leaning parties — and why, I suspect, Scheer’s Conservatives have so far steered clear of any definitive statement on their cancelation — is that they’re quite popular with Canadians. As I said, fully 89 per cent of us are “in favour or accepting of” continued subsidization. Furthermore, 64 per cent of us also want EVs to become the majority of cars on the road. Sounds like a perfect melding of public enthusiasm and political will, doesn’t it?
The problem is that an incredible 56 per cent of these same respondents think EVs will be in the majority in less than 10 years. Reality, however awkward it might make electioneering, says different. All plug-in electrics — PHEVs and EVs — still make up less than two per cent of Canadian sales despite 20 years of hype and, worse yet, all the plug-ins sold in the last 20 years still only represent 0.3 per cent of all registered vehicles on American roads. Not quite as rosy a projection for rebates.
Even more problematic are the studies — the University of Toronto Press’ Market-Based Policies for Green Motoring in Canada is just one — that posit EV subsidies are a particularly wasteful method to reduce automotive greenhouse gas emissions. Much more effective, say authors Arthur Antweiler and Sumeet Gulati, are “feebates” — which combine both a fee for fuel-inefficient vehicles and a rebate for fuel-efficient vehicles — that promote the retirement of gas guzzlers and subsidize the purchase of cheap, fuel-efficient cars.
What we’re left with, then, after wading through all the rhetoric, is a policy espoused by the majority of parties — and not specifically opposed by the major right wing party — because it’s beloved by voters. That same policy, however, is far less effective than more complicated alternatives — that would be those feebates thingies — that are either too complex to promote politically and would probably be wildly unpopular if implemented.
In other words, politics as usual.
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