A new Moscow-backed political grouping in Moldova has Vladimir Putin's support to destabilize the former Soviet country as it seeks European Union membership, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said.
Ilan Shor, a U.S.-sanctioned fugitive oligarch, has announced the creation of the pro-Russian electoral bloc, which plans to run a candidate in Moldova's presidential elections on October 20.
However, Dionis Cenusa, an expert on Moldovan politics, told Newsweek an overt Moscow operation in Moldova could backfire for the Kremlin because it would increase the chances of current President Maia Sandu winning the next election, which would be "a serious miss for Russia and its pawns."
Shor was sentenced in absentia in 2017 for a scandal involving the embezzlement of $1 billion from the country's banks and now lives in Israel, where he was born.
He frequently visits Moscow, where he led a meeting of Moldovan opposition politicians on Sunday, announcing a political bloc called "Victory."
It consists of his own Shor Party joining forces with the Revival Party, Chance Party, Alternative Forces of the Salvation of Moldova Party, and the Victoria Party. Yevgenia Gutsul, the governor of pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, will be the bloc's executive secretary.
Most of the parties in Shor's bloc have little influence in Moldova, with the most prominent, The Revival Party, which orchestrated a protest in February calling for Sandu to step down, only holding four of the parliament's 101 seats.
The Victory bloc is likely intended to give the sense that there is widespread support in Moldova for pro-Russian policies, and for Shor, "who continues to be the major conduit of Kremlin influence" in Moldovan politics, despite his exile, the ISW said on Sunday.
The Victory bloc will likely mean Moscow can focus on one unified—rather than multiple pro-Russian Moldovan actors, according to the ISW.
"The Kremlin is likely engaged in hybrid operations aimed at destabilizing Moldovan society, attacking Moldova's democratic government, and preventing Moldova's accession to the EU," the think tank said.
Cenusa, a risk analyst with the Lithuania-based Eastern Europe Studies Center, said there was a misunderstanding that Russia was trying to defeat the ruling elites in Moldova through elections. "Russia is playing a complex game in Moldova," he told Newsweek.
"Assessments invoking that Russia is supporting Shor and other openly pro-Russian forces to justify future plans for aggression against Moldova omit the simple fact that any overt operation will increase the chances of current President Maia Sandu winning the presidential election in the first round," he said. "This result will be a serious miss for Russia and its pawns in Moldovan politics."
Rather, Cenusa believed Russia was most likely using radical pro-Russian forces to distract from other moderate forces in Moldova, which are acceptable to Russian interests in the country.
For instance, while Shor promotes Moldova joining the Eurasian Union, other former promoters of the same objective, such as former president Igor Dodon, have said that he is not against Chisinau's EU integration on the condition that Moldova decides on its sovereignty.
"Russia's intentions are to radicalize a certain segment of the Moldovan public and voters, including using the image of the current ruling elites in the Gagauz autonomy," Cenusa said.
Newsweek has contacted the foreign ministries of Russia and Moldova for comment.
During Sandu's presidency, Moldova has increased its pivot to the West and was granted EU candidate status in June 2022. There were concerns about what actions the Kremlin might take in the pro-Moscow breakaway region of Transnistria, where Russian troops are based, which remains a security threat to the country as the war in neighboring Ukraine started by Putin continues to rage.
Officials in Transnistria held a rare meeting in February in which they called on Moscow for help with security region's council of deputies "in the face of increased pressure from Moldova."
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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Brendan Cole is a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London, UK. His focus is Russia and Ukraine, in particular ... Read more
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