Nebraska’s net farm income projected to hit record level in 2025

HASTINGS, Neb. (KSNB) - Nebraska’s net farm income is projected to surge 55% in 2025, reaching a record $9.42 billion, according to new forecasts from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln and the University of Missouri.

That figure would mark the highest nominal farm income in state history and the third-highest on record after adjusting for inflation, according to the Spring 2025 Nebraska Farm Income Outlook.

Fueling the sharp increase is a projected $1.58 billion in direct government payments—accounting for 17% of the overall rise. Total farm receipts are also expected to grow by $731 million, reaching $33.37 billion, thanks to stronger cash receipts from livestock and crop insurance payments, which are expected to offset lower returns from crop sales.

Nebraska’s projected 55% increase far outpaces the national forecast of a 30% rise, based on data from the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.

However, the report cautions that the projections do not fully account for recent tariff announcements or other market uncertainties. Even small shifts in production expenses or cash receipts could significantly impact the bottom line.

Brad Lubben, agricultural policy specialist at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, noted that while the government payments offer a short-term boost, their long-term impact is uncertain.

“It also comes mostly from one time government assistance that was passed in legislation back in December, which means it really helps and it really improves the profitability outlook for 2025,” Lubben said. “But it also doesn’t promise us much in the way of long run support and stability in the Ag sector.”

He added that the next round of projections could paint a very different picture.

" When we next release and update this fall, probably in October, we will most likely have a different projection, whether it’ll be better or worse remains to be seen,” Lubben said. “Every sort of early season forecast is subject to a pretty big margin of

Despite the strong 2025 forecast, Lubben emphasized that concerns remain.

“We have a great deal of uncertainty about policy,” he said. “This supplemental assistance that the government passed provides one time support, in part because we don’t have a farm bill that provides the more stable, solid financial safety net for the long run.”

Other key projections from the report include:

• Crop receipts are expected to decline 2% in 2025, despite increased corn and soybean production. A 2% rebound is possible in 2026.
  • Corn receipts are projected to drop by $84 million.
  • Soybean receipts are forecast to decline by $86 million.
  • Wheat receipts are expected to fall 3%.
• Hay prices could rise 11% amid a 9% drop in acreage.
• Cattle inventory is expected to continue declining, though receipts may rise 2% due to higher prices.
• Hog receipts are forecast to fall 1%, while broiler receipts could grow more than 10% annually through 2026.
• Production expenses are expected to remain steady at $27.22 billion, with lower costs for feed, pesticides, fuel and interest balancing increases in livestock purchases, fertilizer and rent.
• Net rents to landlords are projected to rise by $81 million.

The report is a joint effort by Nebraska’s Center for Agricultural Profitability and Missouri’s Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center.

The full report, data tables and a webinar on the projections are available here.

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